Luxfer Holdings (Luxfer Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Luxfer Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Luxfer Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Luxfer Holdings (Luxfer Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Luxfer Holdings PLC (NYSE:LXFR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LX4A:Germany

Address

8989 North Port Washington Road, Suite 211, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53217

Website

https://www.luxfer.com

Luxfer Holdings PLC is a global manufacturer of highly-engineered industrial materials which focuses on value creation by using its broad array of technical know-how and proprietary technologies. Its high-performance materials, components and high-pressure gas containment devices are used in defense and emergency response, healthcare, transportation and general industrial applications. It focuses primarily on product lines related to magnesium alloys, zirconium chemicals and carbon composites. Its product areas, include magnesium aerospace alloys, photo-engraving plates, zirconium chemicals for automotive catalytic converters and high-pressure composite cylinders for breathing applications and a wide variety of other uses. Its segments are Elektron and Gas Cylinders.

Executives

Stephen Webster	officer: Group Financial Controller	LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Andrew Butcher	officer: See Remarks	LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Patrick K Mullen	director	LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Howard Ioan Mead	officer: See Remarks	LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Mark James Lawday	officer: See Remarks	LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Richard J Hipple	director	10035 HUNTING DRIVE, BRECKSVILLE OH 44141
Sylvia Ann Stein	director	1500 DEKOVEN AVE., RACINE WI 53403
Jeffrey C. Moorefield	officer: See Remarks	C/O LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Lisa G Trimberger	director	C/O CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTIES TRUST, 6711 COLUMBIA GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 300, COLUMBIA MD 21046
Mark Chivers	officer: See Remarks	LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
David Landless	director	8310 S. VALLEY HWY, SUITE 350, DENVER CO 80112
Graham Wardlow	officer: See Remarks	LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
James Gardella	officer: President, Luxfer Magtech	LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Megan Elizabeth Glise	officer: Associate General Counsel	LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Alok Maskara	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD, RICHARDSON TX 75080