Lifecore Biomedical (Lifecore Biomedical) Predictability Rank

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What is Lifecore Biomedical Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lifecore Biomedical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lifecore Biomedical (Lifecore Biomedical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Lifecore Biomedical Inc (NAS:LFCR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3515 Lyman Boulevard, Chaska, MN, USA, 55318

Website

https://www.lifecore.com

Lifecore Biomedical Inc is a fully integrated contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) that offers highly differentiated capabilities in the development, fill and finish of complex sterile injectable pharmaceutical products in syringes and vials. It manufactures injectable-grade Hyaluronic Acid.

Executives

Raymond T. White	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners, Llc	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners Holdings, Llc	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners, L.p. Ii	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners, L.p. I	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners Asset Management, Llc	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Christopher S Kiper	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Nathaniel Calloway	director	C/O ANEBULO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1415 RANCH ROAD 620 SOUTH, SUITE 201, LAKEWAY TX 78734
Wynnefield Partners Small Cap Value Lp I	10 percent owner	450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123
Raymond H Diradoorian	director	C/O LANDEC CORPORATION, 2811 AIRPARK DRIVE, SANTA MARIA CA 93455
Joshua Schechter	director	C/O THE PANTRY, INC., 305 GREGSON DRIVE, CARY NC 27511
Patrick D Walsh	director	14282 FRANKLIN AVE., TUSTIN CA 92780
John D Morberg	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LANDEC CORPORATION, 2811 AIRPARK DRIVE, SANTA MARIA CA 93455
Albert D. Bolles	director	CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, MS 1-330, OMAHA NE 68102
James G Hall	officer: Executive Vice President	3515 LYMAN BLVD., CHASKA MN 55318