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WK Kellogg Co (WK Kellogg Co) Predictability Rank


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What is WK Kellogg Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WK Kellogg Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

WK Kellogg Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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WK Kellogg Co (WK Kellogg Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » WK Kellogg Co (NYSE:KLG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
USNA TJBH UTZ HAIN WEST JBSS BRCC BGS SENEA BYND XSWX:NESN KHC XPAR:BN GIS SHSE:603288 NSE:NESTLEIND SZSE:300999 SHSE:600887 TSE:2802 LSE:ABF
Traded in Other Exchanges
KU9:Germany
Address
One Kellogg Square, Battle Creek, MI, USA, 49016
Website
WK Kellogg is the second-largest cereal manufacturer in North America. Its cereal brands include Special K, Frosted Flakes, Raisin Bran, Froot Loops, Frosted Mini Wheats, Kashi, Corn Flakes, Rice Krispies, Apple Jacks, and Bear Naked. The company was spun off from the former Kellogg business, now known as Kellanova, where the former firm's global snacks portfolio and international cereal are now housed. WK Kellogg, which began trading in October 2023, generates the bulk of its sales (about 88% of its proforma fiscal 2022 base) from its home turf.
Executives
Sherry Brice officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer C/O WK KELLOGG CO, ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016
Norma Barnes-euresti director ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016
David Mckinstray officer: Chief Financial Officer ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016
Doug Vandevelde officer: Chief Growth Officer ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016
Gary H Pilnick director, officer: President
Bruce Alan Brown officer: Chief Customer Officer ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016
Michael Corbo director C/O COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY, 300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mindy Sherwood director C/O WK KELLOGG CO, ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016
Julio N Nemeth director ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202
R David Banyard director MYERS INDUSTRIES INC., 1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301
Ramon Murguia director ONE MICHIGAN AVENUE EAST, BATTLE CREEK MI 49017-4058
Kellogg W K Foundation Trust 10 percent owner 50 S. LA SALLE ST., B-10, CHICAGO IL 60603
Kellogg W K Foundation 10 percent owner
G Zachary Gund director 14 NASSAU STREET, PRINETON NJ 08542
Ellanova 10 percent owner 412 N WELLS ST, CHICAGO IL 60654