Kforce (Kforce) Predictability Rank

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What is Kforce Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kforce Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kforce (Kforce) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Kforce Inc (NYSE:KFRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ROF:Germany

Address

1150 Assembly Drive, Suite 500, Tampa, FL, USA, 33607

Website

https://www.kforce.com

Kforce Inc provides professional and technical specialty staffing services and solutions. The company operates two business segments: 1) technology segment where the company provides talent solutions with candidates skilled in areas including systems/applications architecture and development, data management and analytics, business and artificial intelligence, machine learning, project and program management, and network architecture and security. 2) FA segment where the company offers consultants in traditional finance and accounting roles such as finance, planning and analysis; business intelligence analysis; general accounting; transactional accounting business and cost analysis; and taxation and treasury. The majority of revenue is earned through the technology segment.

Executives

David M Kelly	officer: Sr VP, Chief Financial Officer
N John Simmons	director	33 NORTH PINE CIRCLE, BELLEAIR FL 33756
Elaine Rosen	director
Andrew G Thomas	officer: CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER	1001 E PALM AVE, TAMPA FL 33605
Joseph J Liberatore	officer: President
David L Dunkel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Jeffrey B. Hackman	officer: SVP Finance & Accounting	1001 EAST PALM AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33605
Ralph Struzziero	director
Derrick Dewan Brooks	director	1001 EAST PALM AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33605
Kye L. Mitchell	officer: Chief Operations Officer	1001 EAST PALM AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33605
Mark F Furlong	director	770 M WATER ST, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Michael R Blackman	officer: Chief Corporate Dev. Officer
Ann E. Dunwoody	director	600 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Catherine Cloudman	director	1001 E. PALM AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33605
Richard M Cocchiaro	director, officer: Vice Chairman