Infinera (Infinera) Predictability Rank

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What is Infinera Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Infinera Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Infinera (Infinera) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Infinera Corp (NAS:INFN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

INFN:Mexico IX6:Germany IX6:Germany

Address

6373 San Ignacio Avenue, San Jose, CA, USA, 95119

Website

https://www.infinera.com

Infinera Corp is a global supplier of networking solutions comprised of networking equipment, software and services. Its portfolio of solutions includes optical transport platforms, converged packet-optical transport platforms, compact modular platforms, optical line systems, coherent optical subsystems, a suite of automation software offerings, and support and professional services. The company's customers include operators of fixed line and mobile networks, including telecommunications service providers, internet content providers, cable providers, wholesale carriers, research and education institutions, large enterprises, utilities and government entities.

Executives

Michael H Fernicola	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O INFINERA CORPORATION, 140 CASPIAN COURT, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
David W Heard	officer: GM, Products and Solutions	C/O INFINERA CORPORATION, 140 CASPIAN COURT, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
George Andrew Riedel	director	C/O NORTEL NETWORKS CORPORATION, 8200 DIXIE ROAD, SUITE 100, BRAMPTON A6 L6T 5P6
Paul J Milbury	director
David F Welch	officer: Chief Mkting & Strategy Ofcr	C/O INFINERA CORPORATION, 140 CASPIAN COURT, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Nicholas Walden	officer: SVP, Worldwide Sales	140 CASPIAN COURT, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Roop Kalyan Lakkaraju	director	BENCHMARK ELECTRONICS, INC., 56 SOUTH ROCKFORD DRIVE, TEMPE AZ 85281
Christine Bucklin	director	608 30TH STREET, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Thomas J Fallon	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O INFINERA CORPORATION, 140 CASPIAN COURT, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Mark A Wegleitner	director	C/O INFINERA CORPORATION, 140 CASPIAN COURT, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Hooshmand Kambiz	director	6290 SEQUENCE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Amy H. Rice	director	333 SOUTH GRAND AVE., 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Partners Ltd	10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, BROOKFIELD PLACE, SUITE 300, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3
Brookfield Asset Management Inc.	10 percent owner	BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY ST, STE 100, PO BOX 762, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3