What is Hancock Whitney Predictability Rank?
5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Hancock Whitney Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Hancock Whitney (Hancock Whitney) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2510 14th Street, Hancock Whitney Plaza, Gulfport, MS, USA, 39501
Hancock Whitney Corp operates bank offices and financial centers. The company offers financial products and services, including traditional and online banking; commercial and small business banking; private banking; trust and investment services; healthcare banking; certain insurance services; and mortgage services. The company also operates a loan production office in Nashville, Tennessee.
Executives
| Joseh S Exnicios |
officer: President - Whitney Bank |
228 ST CHARLES AVE, NEW ORLEANS LA 70130 |
| Carleton Richard Wilkins |
director |
P.O. BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| John M Hairston |
officer: Chief Operations Officer |
P O BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| Knight Cecil W. Jr |
officer: Chief Banking Officer |
P.O. BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 35902 |
| Michael M Achary |
officer: Sr. VP & Corp. Treasurer |
P.O. BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| Lane Harry Merritt Iii |
director |
835 UNION STREET, NEW ORLEANS LA 70112 |
| Joan Cahill Teofilo |
director |
P.O. BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| Sonia Perez |
director |
127 FLYNT ROAD, LAUREL MS 39443 |
| Christine L Smilek |
director |
P O BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| Christopher S Ziluca |
officer: Chief Credit Officer |
PO BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| Suzette K Kent |
director |
P.O. BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| James H Horne |
director |
P O BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| Dean Liollio |
director |
333 CLAY STREET, STE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Michael Otero |
officer: Chief Risk Officer |
PO BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
| Ruena H Wetzel |
officer: Chief HR Officer |
PO BOX 4019, GULFPORT MS 39502 |
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