Hudson Pacific Properties (Hudson Pacific Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Hudson Pacific Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hudson Pacific Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hudson Pacific Properties (Hudson Pacific Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Hudson Pacific Properties Inc (NYSE:HPP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HPPpC.PFD:USA HP9:Germany

Address

11601 Wilshire Boulevard, Ninth Floor, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90025

Website

https://www.hudsonpacificproperties.com

Hudson Pacific Properties Inc is a real estate investment trust that acquires, operates, and owns office buildings and media and entertainment properties, such as sound stages, on America's West Coast. The company focuses on developed, urban markets in Northern California, Southern California, and the Pacific Northwest. In terms of total square footage, the vast majority of Hudson Pacific's real estate portfolio is composed of office properties located in the Greater Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles areas. The company operates in two reportable segments; office properties & related operations; and studio properties & related operations. The majority of revenue is derived from the office properties & related operations segment.

Executives

Arthur X. Suazo	officer: EVP, Leasing	11601 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 6TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Drew Gordon	officer: Chief Investment Officer	11601 WILSHIRE BLVD., 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Harout Krikor Diramerian	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O HUDSON PACIFIC PROPERTIES, INC., 11601 WILSHIRE BLVD. SUITE 1600, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Barry A Sholem	director	2121 AVENUE OF THE STARS, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Victor J Coleman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	HUDSON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC., 11601 WILSHIRE BLVD SUITE 1600, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Andy Wattula	officer: Chief Operating Officer	11601 WILSHIRE BLVD., 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Mark T Lammas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11601 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1600, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Mark David Linehan	director	5330 DEBBIE ROAD, SUITE 100, SANTA BARBARA CA 93111
Harris Robert L Ii	director	C/O ACACIA RESEARCH CORP, 500 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Jonathan M Glaser	director	11601 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 2180, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Erinn Burnough	director	LANSDOWNE HOUSE, LANSDOWNE ROAD, FLAT 11, LONDON X0 W11 3LP
Christopher James Barton	officer: EVP,Operations and Development	11601 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1600, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Richard B Fried	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10%	C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Barry Alan Porter	director	C/O CLARITY PARTNERS, 100 N. CRESCENT DR, SUITE 300, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Karen Brodkin	director	1136 GALLOWAY STREET, PACIFIC PALISADES CA 90272