New Focus Auto Tech Holdings (HKSE:00360) Predictability Rank

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What is New Focus Auto Tech Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New Focus Auto Tech Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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New Focus Auto Tech Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » New Focus Auto Tech Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00360) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

NWFAF:USA

Address

180 Hennessy Road, 5th Floor, Wan Chai, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.nfa360.com

New Focus Auto Tech Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the manufacture and sale of electronic and power-related automotive parts and accessories and operating the 4S dealership stores and related business. Its segments include Manufacturing and trading Business and Automobile Dealership and Service Business. The firm generates a majority of its revenue from the Manufacturing Business segment engaged in the manufacture and sale of automobile accessories. Geographically, the company operates in America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the People's Republic of China.

Executives

Law Wei	2101 Beneficial owner
Hong Kong Prosper Way Investment Ltd
Lai Xi Shi Guo You Zi Chan Tou Zi Fu Wu Zhong Xin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Luo Xiaoman	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wu Han Ling Du Chuang Xin Chuang Ye Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2102 Investment manager
Zhong Dian Guang Gu Lian He Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xiang Gang Dao Du Shi Ye You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Qing Dao Ling Du Chuang Ye Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qing Dao Guo Rui Chun Xi Shi Ye You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qing Dao Guo Rui Xin Fu Ke Si Tou Zi Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qing Dao Guo Rui Heng Da Tou Zi Kai Fa You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wu Han Ling Du Zi Ben Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wu Han Guang Gu Lian He Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chun Xi Zi Chan Guan Li Bei Jing You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Huang Liping	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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