Hess Midstream LP (Hess Midstream LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Hess Midstream LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hess Midstream LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Hess Midstream LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hess Midstream LP (Hess Midstream LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Hess Midstream LP (NYSE:HESM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

VNOM NS KNTK DHT INSW GLNG TNK HEP GEL LPG TSX:ENB EPD WMB ET LNG OKE MPLX KMI TSX:TRP CQP

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1501 McKinney Street, Houston, TX, USA, 77010

Website

https://www.hessmidstream.com

Hess Midstream LP owns, operates, develops, and acquires a diverse set of midstream assets and provides fee-based services to Hess and third-party customers. It conducts its business through three operating segments: gathering, processing and storage, and terminaling and exporting. The company derives the maximum revenue from the gathering segment. Its gathering segment consists of the following assets namely Natural Gas Gathering and Compression; Crude Oil Gathering and Produced Water Gathering and Disposal.

Executives

Global Infrastructure Investors Ii, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS, 12 E. 49TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Hess Corp	director, 10 percent owner	1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jonathan C. Stein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	HESS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS LP, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John A. Gatling	officer: President and COO	HESS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS LP, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Geurt G Schoonman	director	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
James K Lee	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Gip Ii Blue Holding, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Letwin Stephen J J	director	HESS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS LP, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John B Hess	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Global Infrastructure Gp Ii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	12 EAST 49TH STREET, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
J Patrick Reddy	director
Hess Infrastructure Partners Gp Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1501 MCKINNEY STREET, HOUSTON TX 77010
Hess Midstream Gp Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1501 MCKINNEY STREET, HOUSTON TX 77010
Hess Midstream Gp Lp	director, 10 percent owner	1501 MCKINNEY STREET, HOUSTON TX 77010
Gip Blue Holding Gp, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	12 EAST 49TH STREET, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017