GMS (GMS) Predictability Rank

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What is GMS Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GMS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GMS (GMS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » GMS Inc (NYSE:GMS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CLG:Germany

Address

100 Crescent Centre Parkway, Suite 800, Tucker, GA, USA, 30084

Website

https://www.gms.com

GMS Inc is a distributor of specialty building products including wallboard, suspended ceilings systems, or ceilings, steel framing, and other complementary building products. The company serves its products to commercial new construction, commercial repair and remodel, residential new construction, and residential repair and remodel (R&R). Its geographical segment is Central, Midwest, Northeast, Southern, Southeast, Western, and Canada. The company generates maximum revenue from Wallboard products and geographically from the United States.

Executives

George T Hendren	officer: Chief Operating Officer	100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Craig D Apolinsky	officer: VP, GC & Corporate Secretary	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
J David Smith	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
John J Gavin	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
William Forrest Bell	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1001 SUMMIT BLVD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30319
Scott M Deakin	officer: VP, Chief Financial Officer	123 MAIN STREET, BRISTOL CT 06011-2185
Coliseum Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Theron I Gilliam	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Turner John C Jr	officer: President	1009 WIMBERLY COURT, ALLEN TX 75013-1195
Peter C Browning	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Leigh R Dobbs	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Coliseum Capital Co-invest Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Adam Gray	10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Christopher S Shackelton	10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Coliseum Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853