Four Corners Property Trust (Four Corners Property Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Four Corners Property Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Four Corners Property Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Four Corners Property Trust (Four Corners Property Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Four Corners Property Trust Inc (NYSE:FCPT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4Z1:Germany

Address

591 Redwood Highway, Suite 3215, Mill Valley, CA, USA, 94941

Website

https://www.fcpt.com

Four Corners Property Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the ownership, acquisition and leasing of restaurant and retail properties. The company seeks to grow its portfolio by acquiring additional real estate to lease, on a net basis, for use in the restaurant and retail industries. The firm operates through two segments namely, real estate operations and restaurant operations. The real estate operations segment consists of rental revenues primarily generated by leasing restaurant and retail properties to tenants. The restaurant operations segment is conducted through a taxable REIT subsidiary (TRS) and consists of Kerrow Restaurant Operating Business. The firm generates most of the revenue from the real estate operations segment.

Executives

Douglas B Hansen	director	ONE BELEVEDERE PLACE, SUITE 300, BELVEDERE CA 94941
William H Lenehan	director, officer: President and CEO	2784 UNION STREET APT 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
John S Moody	director	MARSH MCLENNAN REALTY ADVISORS, 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jesuele Barbara Angelica Faylona	director	15308 DE PAUW STREET, PACIFIC PALISADES CA 90272
Niccole Stewart	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	591 REDWOOD HIGHWAY, SUITE 1150, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Elizabeth Tennican	director	119 30TH AVE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94121
Toni S Steele	director	6147 SAN VICENTE BOULEVARD, LOS ANGELES CA 90048
Gerald R Morgan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	591 REDWOOD HIGHWAY, SUITE 1150, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
James L Brat	officer: General Counsel	591 REDWOOD HIGHAWY, SUITE 1150, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Eric Hirschhorn	director	12701 WHITEWATER DRIVE, SUITE 200, MINNETONKA MN 55343
Charles Jemley	director	C/O FOUR CORNERS PROPERTY TRUST, INC., 591 REDWOOD HIGHWAY, SUITE 1150, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Paul E. Szurek	director	C/O CORESITE REALTY CORPORATION, 1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202
Marran H. Ogilvie	director	599 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Darden Restaurants Inc	10 percent owner	1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32837