Etsy (ETSY) Predictability Rank

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What is Etsy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Etsy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Etsy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Etsy (ETSY) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Etsy Inc (NAS:ETSY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ETSY:Mexico 1ETSY:Italy 3E2:Germany 3E2:Germany 3E2:Germany E2TS34:Brazil ETSY:Austria

Address

117 Adams Street, Brooklyn, NY, USA, 11201

Website

https://www.etsy.com

Etsy operates a top-10 e-commerce marketplace operator in the U.S. and the U.K., with sizable operations in Germany, France, Australia, and Canada. The firm dominates an interesting niche, connecting buyers and sellers through its online market to exchange vintage and craft goods. With $13.3 billion in 2022 consolidated gross merchandise volume, the firm has cemented itself as one of the largest players in a quickly growing space, generating revenue from listing fees, commissions on sold items, advertising services, payment processing, and shipping labels. As of the end of 2022, the firm connected more than 95 million buyers and 7.5 million sellers on its marketplace properties: Etsy, Reverb (musical equipment), and Depop (clothing resale).

Executives

Josh Silverman	director, officer: President & CEO	117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Ryan M. Scott	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	117 ADAMS STREET, C/O ETSY, INC., BROOKLYN NY 11249
Merilee Buckley	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	117 ADAMS ST. C/O ETSY, INC., BROOKLYN NY 11201
Marla J Blow	director	412 ETHAN ALLEN DRIVE, TAKOMA PARK MD 20912
Nicholas Daniel	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O ETSY, INC., 117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Andy Ballard	director	ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 1350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Rachel C Glaser	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ETSY, INC., 117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Stretch Colin	officer: Chief Legal Officewr	C/O ETSY, INC., 117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Rachana Kumar	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O ETSY, INC., 117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Melissa Reiff	director	C/O THE CONTAINER STORE GROUP, INC., 500 FREEPORT PARKWAY, COPPELL TX 75019
Raina Moskowitz	officer: Chief Ops,Strategy&Ppl Officer	117 ADAMS STREET, C/O ETSY,INC., BROOKLYN NY 11201
Michael T Fisher	officer: Chief Technology Officer	117 ADAMS STREET, C/O ETSY, INC., BROOKLYN NY 11201
Frederick R Wilson	director, 10 percent owner
Kimaria Seymour	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O ETSY, INC., 117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Goyal Kruti Patel	officer: Chief Product Officer	117 ADAMS STREET, C/O ETSY, INC., BROOKLYN NY 11201