Diversified Healthcare Trust (Diversified Healthcare Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Diversified Healthcare Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Diversified Healthcare Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Diversified Healthcare Trust (Diversified Healthcare Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Diversified Healthcare Trust (NAS:DHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

CHTH GMRE UHT CHCT HLTC NHHS STRW CVMCD LTC AHR WELL VTR DOC OHI HR CTRE SBRA XBRU:AED MPW NHI

Traded in Other Exchanges

SNF:Germany

Address

255 Washington Street, Suite 300, Two Newton Place, Newton, MA, USA, 02458-1634

Website

https://www.dhcreit.com

Diversified Healthcare Trust is a real estate investment trust that focuses on healthcare-related properties, including life science estates, medical offices, and senior living communities. It acquires and owns properties and is engaged in the development and implementation of medical services and technologies. It operates through two segments: its office portfolio and its senior housing operating portfolio. The office portfolio includes medical office properties leased to medical-related businesses and life sciences properties. The SHOP segment runs communities that offer multiple types of residential care, ranging from independent living to nursing services. DHT operates across the United States and the majority of its revenue derives from rents and medical programs.

Executives

Matthew C. Brown	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST, TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
Phyllis M. Hollis	director	TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
David A Pierce	director	BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
John L Harrington	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Daniel F. Lepage	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Jennifer F. Mintzer	officer: President and COO	C/O DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASHINGTON STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
Jennifer B Clark	director
Siedel Richard W. Jr.	officer: Treasurer and C.F.O.	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Lisa Harris Jones	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Jeffrey P. Somers	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Doyle Richard A Jr	officer: Treasurer and CFO	C/O FIVE STAR QUALITY CARE, INC., 400 CENTRE STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
Adam D. Portnoy	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
John R Hoadley	officer: Treasurer & CFO
David J Hegarty	officer: President & COO	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Frank J Bailey	director	C/O REIT MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH LLC, 400 CENTRE STREET, NEWTON MA 02458