Donnelley Financial Solutions (Donnelley Financial Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Donnelley Financial Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Donnelley Financial Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Donnelley Financial Solutions (Donnelley Financial Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc (NYSE:DFIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1DN:Germany

Address

35 West Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601

Website

https://www.dfinsolutions.com

Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc is a global risk and compliance solutions company. The company provides regulatory filing and deal solutions via its software-as-a-service, technology-enabled services, and print and distribution solutions to public and private companies, mutual funds, and other regulated investment firms. The company operates in four segments: Capital Markets - Software Solutions, Capital Markets - Compliance and Communications Management, Investment Companies - Software Solutions and Investment Companies - Compliance and Communications Management. Its geographical segments are the United States( US), Europe, Asia, Canada, and others, of which the US accounts for the vast majority of its total revenue.

Executives

Jeffrey Jacobowitz	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ROBOTTI & COMPANY, 52 VANDERBILT AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Kami Turner	officer: See Remarks	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 W. WACKER DR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Eric J Johnson	officer: President, GIC	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Daniel Leib	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O RR DONNELLEY & SONS COMPANY, 111 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Simcoe Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	540 MADISON AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Craig Clay	officer: President, GCM	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Leah Marie Trzcinski	officer: General Counsel	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 W WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Robert Kirk Williams	officer: Chief People & Admin Officer	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 W WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jennifer B Reiners	officer: General Counsel	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 W. WACKER DR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Juliet S Ellis	director	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Chandar Pattabhiram	director	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 W. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60601
David A Gardella	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, 35 W. WACKER DR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Gary G Greenfield	director	AVID, 75 NETWORK DRIVE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Richard L Crandall	director	800 DELAWARE AVE, COMPUTER TASK GROUP INC, BUFFALO NY 14209
Lois M Martin	director	PO BOX 1101, ADC TELCOMMUNICATIONS INC, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1104