Culp (CULP) Predictability Rank

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What is Culp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Culp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Culp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Culp (CULP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Culp Inc (NYSE:CULP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CUZ:Germany

Address

1823 Eastchester Drive, High Point, NC, USA, 27265

Website

https://www.culp.com

Culp Inc manufactures, sources, and markets mattress fabrics and sewn covers used for covering mattresses and box springs and upholstery fabrics including cut and sewn kits used in the production of upholstered furniture. The company has two operating segments Mattress fabrics and Upholstery fabrics. The mattress fabrics segment, also known as Culp Home Fashions, manufactures and markets mattress fabrics and mattress covers to bedding manufacturers. The upholstery fabrics segment markets fabrics for residential and commercial furniture, including jacquard woven fabrics, velvets, micro denier suedes, woven dobbies, knitted fabrics, piece-dyed woven products, and polyurethane leather look fabrics.

Executives

Jonathan Lee Kelly	director	1823 EASTCHESTER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Kimberly Bullock Gatling	director	1823 EASTCHESTER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Thomas Bruno	officer: President, Culp Home Fashions	1823 EASTCHESTER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
John Allen Baugh	director	1823 EASTCHESTER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Gallagher Thomas Bernard Jr	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1823 EASTCHESTER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Perry E Davis	director	NO. 1 LEGGETT ROAD, CARTHAGE MO 64836
Fred A Jackson	director	C/O FUDDICK CORP, 301 S TRYON ST STE 1800, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Teresa Atkins Huffman	officer: Senior VP, Human Resources	1823 EASTCHESTER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Sharon A Decker	director	4100 COCA COLA PLAZA, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Franklin N Saxon	director, officer: President and COO	8508 MAHALA DR, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Culp Robert George Iv	officer: President, CHF division	101 SOUTH MAIN STREET, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Kenneth W Mcallister	director	220 CASCADE DR, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Ashley Carter Durbin	officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary	1823 EASTCHESTER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Cassandra J Brown	officer: President, Culp Home Fashions	7209 HWY 158, STOKESDALE NC 27357
Culp Robert G Iii	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	903 FORREST HILL DR, HIGH POINT NC 27262