Central Garden & Pet Co (Central Garden & Pet Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Central Garden & Pet Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Central Garden & Pet Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Central Garden & Pet Co (Central Garden & Pet Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Central Garden & Pet Co (NAS:CENTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CENT:USA GP7:Germany

Address

1340 Treat Boulevard, Suite 600, Walnut Creek, CA, USA, 94597

Website

https://www.central.com

Central Garden & Pet Co understands that home is central to life and has nurtured happy and healthy homes for over forty years. The segments of the company are the pet segment and garden segment. The company's trusted products are dedicated to helping lawns grow greener, gardens bloom bigger, pets live healthier and communities grow stronger. Central is home to a portfolio of more than sixty-five brands including Pennington, Nylabone, Kaytee, Amdro, and Aqueon, manufacturing and distribution capabilities, and a passionate, entrepreneurial growth culture. Central Garden and Pet is based in Walnut Creek, California, and has offices across North America and Europe.

Executives

Joyce M. Mccarthy	officer: General Counsel	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Lisa Coleman	director	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BLVD STE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Chun Courtnee A	director	12300 LIBERTY BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Daniel P. Myers	director	C/O KRAFT FOODS INC., THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Walker John D. Iii	officer: President, Garden Consumer Pro	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BLVD STE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Brendan Dougher	director	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Timothy P. Cofer	director, officer: CEO	6425 HALL OF FAME LANE, FRISCO TX 75034
Michael J Griffith	director	DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 2481 MANANA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75220
Christopher T Metz	director	BLACK & DECKER CORP, 701 EAST JOPPA ROAD, TOWSON MD 21286
John Edward Hanson	director	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
William Lawrence Lynch	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BLOULEVARD SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Michael Edwards	director	BORDERS GROUP, INC., 100 PHOENIX DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Nicholas Lahanas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4666 MISSION AVENUE, SUITE 1, SAN DIEGO CA 92116
Andrew K. Woeber	director	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Kay Schwichtenberg	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597