Berry (bry) (Berry (bry)) Predictability Rank

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What is Berry (bry) Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Berry (bry) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Berry (bry) (Berry (bry)) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Berry Corp (bry) (NAS:BRY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1P6:Germany

Address

16000 Dallas Parkway, Suite 500, Dallas, TX, USA, 75248

Website

https://www.bry.com

Berry Corp (bry) is a western United States independent upstream energy company with a focus on the conventional, long-lived oil reserves in the San Joaquin basin of California. Its operating segment includes Exploration and Production (E&P) and Well Servicing and Abandonment. The company generates maximum revenue from the Exploration and Production (E&P) segment.

Executives

Danielle E. Hunter	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	3990 ROGERDALE RD., HOUSTON TX 77042
Arthur T. Smith	director, officer: See Remarks	5201 TRUXTUN AVE., BAKERSFIELD CA 93309
Rajath Shourie	director	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Capital Management Lp	director, 10 percent owner	333 S GRAND AVE 28TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Value Opportunities Fund Gp, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Benefit Street Partners Llc	director, 10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4920, NEW YORK NY 10019
Oaktree Capital Management Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Bam Partners Trust	10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, SUITE 300, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
Atlas Ocm Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Brookfield Asset Management Inc.	10 percent owner	BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY ST, STE 100, PO BOX 762, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3
Renee J Hornbaker	director	200 S. WILCOX DRIVE, KINGSPORT TN 37660-5280
Fernando Araujo	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	16000 N. DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75248
Kurt E. Neher	officer: EVP, Business Development	16000 N. DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75248
Megan E. Silva	officer: EVP of Corporate Affairs	16000 N. DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75248
Eugene Voiland	director	5201 TRUXTUN AVE., BAKERSFIELD CA 93309