Blueprint Medicines (Blueprint Medicines) Predictability Rank

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What is Blueprint Medicines Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blueprint Medicines Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blueprint Medicines (Blueprint Medicines) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Blueprint Medicines Corp (NAS:BPMC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2L9:Germany 2L9:Germany

Address

45 Sidney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.blueprintmedicines.com

Blueprint Medicines Corp is a biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on improving the lives of patients with diseases driven by abnormal kinase activation. The company has developed a small molecule drug pipeline in cancer and a rare genetic disease. Its drug candidates BLU-285, which targets KIT Exon 17 mutants and PDGFRa D842V, abnormally active receptor tyrosine kinase mutants that are drivers of cancer and proliferative disorders. Its other drug candidate is BLU 554 FOR Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma, and BLU-667 for Ret Mutations, Fusions, and Predicted Resistant Mutants.

Executives

Ariel Hurley	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION, 45 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jeffrey W. Albers	director, officer: CEO & President	BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORP., 215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 340/350, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Christopher K. Murray	officer: SVP, Technical Operations	C/O BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION, 38 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Fouad Namouni	officer: President, R and D	535 BOYLSTON ST., 2ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
L. Becker Hewes	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O BLUEPRINT MEDICINES, CORPORATION, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Percy H. Carter	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION, 45 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Philina Lee	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O FUSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 270 LONGWOOD ROAD SOUTH, HAMILTON D0 L8P OA6
Christina Rossi	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	45 SIDNEY STREET, BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Tracey L Mccain	officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer	C/O BLUEPRINTS MEDICINES CORPORATION, 38 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Michael Landsittel	officer: Principal FAO	BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORP., 214 FIRST STREET, SUITE 340/350, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Debra Durso-bumpus	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORORATION, 45 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Kate Haviland	officer: Chief Business Officer	BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION, 38 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
John Tsai	director	BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION, 45 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Habib J Dable	director	C/O ACCELERON PHARMA INC., 128 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
George Demetri	director	BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORP., 215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 340/350, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142