B&G Foods (B&G Foods) Predictability Rank

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What is B&G Foods Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

B&G Foods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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B&G Foods (B&G Foods) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » B&G Foods Inc (NYSE:BGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DHR:Germany

Address

Four Gatehall Drive, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 07054

Website

https://www.bgfoods.com

B&G Foods Inc is an American packaged-food manufacturer. The company sells its products in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. The company's main brands are Ac'cent, B&G, B&M, Baker's Joy, Bear Creek Country Kitchens, Cary's, Cream of Rice, Cream of Wheat, Devonsheer, Don Pepino, Durkee, Emeril's, Grandma's Molasses, MacDonald's, Mama Mary's, Maple Grove Farms, Regina, Sa-son, Sclafani, Smart Puffs, Spice Islands, Spring Tree, and Wright's. The company distributes its products through multiple channels to supermarkets, wholesalers, mass merchants, warehouse clubs, and food service distributors, among others.

Executives

Jordan E Greenberg	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Bruce C Wacha	officer: EVP of Corp Strategy & Bus Dev	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
David L Wenner	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Andrew D Vogel	officer: EVP, PRESIDENT OF MEALS	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., FOUR GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Alfred Poe	director	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Kristen A. Thompson	officer: SVP, President of Frozen & Veg	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., FOUR GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Keller Kenneth C Jr	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., FOUR GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Debra M Chase	director	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., FOUR GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Deann L Brunts	director	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Ellen M Schum	officer: EVP & Chief Customer Officer	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Erich A Fritz	officer: EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Kenneth G. Romanzi	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Cheryl M Palmer	director	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Michael Adasczik	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., FOUR GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Robert D Mills	director	TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY, 5401 VIRGINIA WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027