What is Axsome Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Axsome Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Axsome Therapeutics (Axsome Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
22 Cortlandt Street, 16th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10007
Axsome Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in developing novel therapies for the management of the central nervous system, or CNS, disorders for which there are limited treatment options. Its pipeline products include AXS-05, AXS-07, AXS-12, and AXS-14.
Executives
| Susan Mahony |
director |
LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285 |
| Mark Coleman |
director |
25 BROADWAY, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Hunter R. Murdock |
officer: General Counsel |
22 CORTLAND STREET, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10007 |
| Roger Jeffs |
director |
|
| Nick Pizzie |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
25 BROADWAY, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Mark E Saad |
director |
C/O CYTORI THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3020 CALLAN ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Herriot Tabuteau |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
|
| Mark L. Jacobson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
200 BROADWAY, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038 |
| David C Marek |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O WEBMD HEALTH CORP., 111 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| John Golubieski |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC., 331 TREBLE COVE ROAD, NORTH BILLERICA NY 01862 |
| Myrtle S Potter |
director |
10 FINDERNE AVE, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807 |
| Randall Kaye |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, STE. 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Ames Constance |
officer: Vice President, Finance |
25 BROADWAY, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Antecip Capital Llc |
10 percent owner |
630 5TH AVENUE, SUITE 2074, NEW YORK NY 10111 |
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