Avnet (AVT) Predictability Rank

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What is Avnet Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avnet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avnet (AVT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Avnet Inc (NAS:AVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VNI:Germany

Address

2211 South 47th Street, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85034

Website

https://www.avnet.com

Avnet Inc is a global distributor of electronic components, connecting suppliers of semiconductors and other components to a base of 2.1 million small- and mid-sized customers in 140 countries. Avnet is the third largest semiconductor distributor in the world, and the largest for European chip distribution. Avnet services all levels of electronics design and development, servicing engineers with design tools, test kits, and services alongside its high-volume distribution for final designs.

Executives

James A Lawrence	director	2211 S 47TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Philip R Gallagher	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O AVNET, INC., 2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Rebeca Obregon-jimenez	officer: SVP	3748 E MARE COURT, PHOENIX AZ 85044
Thomas Liguori	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES, INC., 1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
William H Schumann	director	200 E RANDOLPH DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Elizabeth Mcmullen	officer: Global VP - Operations	2211 S 47TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Ernest E Maddock	director	LAM RESEARCH, 4650 CUSHING PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94538
Kenneth A Jacobson	officer: Interim CFO	2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Leng Jin Chan	officer: CIO	2211 S 47TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Dayna Badhorn	officer: Global VP, Strategic Planning	2211 S 47TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Oleg Khaykin	director
Maryann G. Miller	officer: Sr. Vice President	C/O AVNET, INC., 2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Michael Ryan Mccoy	officer: SVP, General Counsel	2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Carlo Bozotti	director	2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Adalio T Sanchez	director	6060 COVENTRY DRIVE, ELKHORN NE 68022