A10 Networks (A10 Networks) Predictability Rank

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What is A10 Networks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

A10 Networks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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A10 Networks (A10 Networks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » A10 Networks Inc (NYSE:ATEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

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Traded in Other Exchanges

8A0:Germany

Address

2300 Orchard Parkway, San Jose, CA, USA, 95131

Website

https://www.a10networks.com

A10 Networks Inc is a provider of secure application solutions and services that enables a new generation of intelligently connected companies, the ability to continuously improve cyber protection and digital responsiveness across dynamic Information Technology and network infrastructures. Its portfolio consists of six secure application solutions; Thunder Application Delivery Controller, Lightning Application Delivery Controller, Thunder Carrier Grade Networking, Thunder Threat Protection System, Thunder SSL Insight and Thunder Convergent Firewall, and two intelligent management and automation tools; Harmony Controller and aGalaxy TPS. Key revenue is generated from the Americas, with the rest coming from Europe, the Middle East and Africa, plus the Asia Pacific region.

Executives

Dhrupad Trivedi	officer: Chief Executive Officer	1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., SUITE 1599, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Matthew P Bruening	officer: EVP, Worldwide Sales & Mktg	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Karen S. Thomas	officer: EVP, Worldwide Sales and Mkt	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Brian Becker	officer: Interim CFO	230 HOWES DRIVE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Robert Scott Weber	officer: General Counsel	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Peter Y Chung	director, other: Indirect GP of 10% Owner	C/O SUMMIT PARTNERS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLR, BOSTON MA 02116
Viex Opportunities Fund, Lp Series One	other: See Explanation of Responses	C/O VIEX CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, 825 THIRD AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert D Cochran	director, officer: VP, Legal & Corp Collaboration	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Dana Elizabeth Wolf	director	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Viex Opportunities Fund, Lp - Series Two	other: See Explanation of Responses	C/O VIEX CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, 825 THIRD AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Summit Partners L P	other: Manager of GP of 10% Owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Mary Dotz	director	280 N BERNARDO AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gunter Reiss	officer: VP Worldwide Mktg & Bus Dev	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Thomas Constantino	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Lee Chen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President	C/O A10 NETWORKS, INC, 2300 ORCHARD PARK, SAN JOSE CA 95131