ASNS (Actelis Networks) Predictability Rank

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What is Actelis Networks Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Actelis Networks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Actelis Networks Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Actelis Networks Inc (NAS:ASNS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4039 Clipper Court, Fremont, CA, USA, 94538

Website

https://www.actelis.com

Actelis Networks Inc is a networking solutions company with a mission to enable communication for Internet of Things, or IoT, projects, deployed over wide areas such as cities, campuses, airports, military bases, roads, and rail. Its networking solutions use a combination of newly deployed fiber infrastructure and existing copper and coaxial lines to create a cost-effective, secure, and quick-to-deploy network. Its solutions also offer end-to-end network security to protect critical IoT data, utilizing a powerful combination of coding and encryption technologies, applied as required on both new and existing infrastructure within the hybrid-fiber-copper network. The Company operates as one operating segment developing and marketing access broadband equipment for copper and fiber networks.

Executives

Tuvia Barlev	director, officer: CEO and Chairman of the Board	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Michal Winkler-solomon	officer: Vice President Marketing	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Bret Harrison	officer: Senior VP Sales, Americas	4039 CLIPPER COURT, FREMONT CA 94538
Israel Niv	director	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Naama Halevi-davidov	director	C/O KALTURA, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Yoav Efron	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Jan Ruderman	officer: CRO-Americas	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Yaron Altit	officer: EVP Sales Intl.	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Noemi Schmayer	director	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Joseph Moscovitz	director	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Eyal Aharon	officer: Vice President R&D	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Elad Domanovitz	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Hemi Kabir	officer: Vice President, Operations	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539
Bruce Hammergren	officer: EVP Sales Americas	C/O ACTELIS NETWORKS, INC., 47800 WESTINGHOUSE DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94539