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AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $-3.92 (As of Jun24)


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What is Agnico Eagle Mines Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Jun24, Agnico Eagle Mines's earnings power value is $-3.92. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Agnico Eagle Mines Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Agnico Eagle Mines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Agnico Eagle Mines Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Agnico Eagle Mines Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -21.54 -20.98 -21.75 -10.85 -7.52

Agnico Eagle Mines Quarterly Data
Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -10.87 -10.15 -7.52 -5.21 -3.03

Competitive Comparison of Agnico Eagle Mines's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Gold subindustry, Agnico Eagle Mines's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Agnico Eagle Mines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Agnico Eagle Mines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Agnico Eagle Mines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Agnico Eagle Mines Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Agnico Eagle Mines's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 4,944
DDA 998
Operating Margin % 26.27
SGA * 25% 42
Tax Rate % 39.43
Maintenance Capex 1,090
Cash and Cash Equivalents 930
Short-Term Debt 781
Long-Term Debt 1,207
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 500

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 26.27%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $4,944 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 26.27%, Average Adjusted SGA = 42,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 4,944 * 26.27% +42 = $1341.040741629 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 39.43%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $1341.040741629 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 1341.040741629 * ( 1 - 39.43% ) = $812.21473557502 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 998 * 0.5 * 39.43% = $196.77447698 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 812.21473557502 + 196.77447698 = $1008.989212555 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Agnico Eagle Mines's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $1,090 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Agnico Eagle Mines's current cash and cash equivalent = $930 Mil.
Agnico Eagle Mines's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 1,207 + 781 = $1987.905 Mil.
Agnico Eagle Mines's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 500 Mil.

Agnico Eagle Mines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun24 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 1008.989212555 - 1,090)/ 9%+930-1987.905 )/500
=-3.92

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -3.9213858176096-88.85 )/-3.9213858176096
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Agnico Eagle Mines  (NYSE:AEM) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Agnico Eagle Mines Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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Agnico Eagle Mines Business Description

Address
145 King Street East, Suite 400, Toronto, ON, CAN, M5C 2Y7
Agnico Eagle is a gold miner with mines in Canada, Mexico, Finland, and Australia. Agnico operated just one mine, LaRonde, as recently as 2008 before bringing its other mines online in rapid succession in the following years. It merged with Kirkland Lake Gold in 2022, acquiring the Detour Lake and Macassa mines in Canada along with the high-grade, low-cost Fosterville mine in Australia. It produced more than 3.4 million gold ounces in 2023 and had about 15 years of gold reserves at end 2023. Agnico Eagle is focused on increasing gold production in lower-risk jurisdictions and bought the remaining 50% of its Canadian Malartic mine along with the Wasamac project and other assets from Yamana Gold in 2023.