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Harley-Davidson (Harley-Davidson) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF : 6.35 (As of Jun. 04, 2024)


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What is Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF?

As of today (2024-06-04), Harley-Davidson's current share price is $35.90. Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 was $5.65. Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF for today is 6.35.

The historical rank and industry rank for Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF or its related term are showing as below:

HOG' s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.47   Med: 9.86   Max: 33.19
Current: 6.54

During the past years, Harley-Davidson's highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF was 33.19. The lowest was 3.47. And the median was 9.86.

HOG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is ranked better than
89.09% of 495 companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry
Industry Median: 21.27 vs HOG: 6.54

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson's adjusted free cash flow per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was $0.421. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is $5.65 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2024.

Shiller PE for Stocks: The True Measure of Stock Valuation


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Chart

Harley-Davidson Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 8.41 7.81 7.20 7.56 6.56

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 6.70 6.19 5.82 6.56 7.74

Competitive Comparison of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF

For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Calculation

Like the Shiller PE Ratio, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF takes the Free Cash Flow per Share from the past 10 years, adjusts it for inflation, and then calculates the average. This average is then used for the P/FCF calculation. Because it considers this 10-year average, it's often referred to as the CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF.

Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF for today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/ Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=35.90/5.65
=6.35

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare=Free Cash Flow per Share/CPI of Mar. 2024 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2024)
=0.421/131.7762*131.7762
=0.421

Current CPI (Mar. 2024) = 131.7762.

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201406 1.453 100.560 1.904
201409 1.616 100.428 2.120
201412 0.316 99.070 0.420
201503 0.645 99.621 0.853
201506 1.880 100.684 2.461
201509 1.726 100.392 2.266
201512 -0.220 99.792 -0.291
201603 0.012 100.470 0.016
201606 1.912 101.688 2.478
201609 2.322 101.861 3.004
201612 0.862 101.863 1.115
201703 0.768 102.862 0.984
201706 2.403 103.349 3.064
201709 1.628 104.136 2.060
201712 -0.215 104.011 -0.272
201803 0.964 105.290 1.207
201806 3.011 106.317 3.732
201809 2.017 106.507 2.496
201812 -0.063 105.998 -0.078
201903 -0.016 107.251 -0.020
201906 2.607 108.070 3.179
201909 2.004 108.329 2.438
201912 -0.263 108.420 -0.320
202003 -0.270 108.902 -0.327
202006 3.817 108.767 4.624
202009 3.246 109.815 3.895
202012 0.026 109.897 0.031
202103 0.932 111.754 1.099
202106 2.984 114.631 3.430
202109 1.659 115.734 1.889
202112 -0.055 117.630 -0.062
202203 0.723 121.301 0.785
202206 0.527 125.017 0.555
202209 2.044 125.227 2.151
202212 -0.625 125.222 -0.658
202303 0.010 127.348 0.010
202306 2.212 128.729 2.264
202309 1.690 129.860 1.715
202312 -0.144 129.419 -0.147
202403 0.421 131.776 0.421

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.


Harley-Davidson  (NYSE:HOG) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Explanation

Compared with the regular Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF smoothed out the fluctuations of free cash flow during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF should give similar results to regular Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow.


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Harley-Davidson (Harley-Davidson) Business Description

Address
3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53208
Harley-Davidson is a global leading manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles, merchandise, parts, and accessories. It sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles and offers a complete line of Harley-Davidson motorcycle parts, accessories, riding gear, and apparel, as well as merchandise. Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley has historically captured about half of all heavyweight domestic retail motorcycle registrations, a metric it had ceded in 2020 as it repositioned the business, and has yet to restore (at 39% in the third quarter). In recent years the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model and into electric with the LiveWire brand.
Executives
Charles Do officer: Sr. Vice President, HDFSI 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Rafeh Masood director C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB, INC., 25 RESEARCH DRIVE, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581
Sara L Levinson director RODALE INC, 733 3RD AVE 15TH FL, MILWAUKEE WI 10017
Allan C. Golston director 2825 AIRVIEW BLVD., KALAMAZOO MI 49002
Farley Jr James D director FORD MOTOR COMPANY, ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Maryrose Sylvester director C/O 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
R John Anderson director LEVI STRAUSS & CO., 1155 BATTERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Norman Thomas Linebarger director
Troy Alstead director 1155 BATTERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
David Viney officer: Interim CFO, VP and Treasurer 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
O'sullivan Coyne Edel M. officer: Chief Commercial Officer 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Jonathan R Root officer: SVP - HDFSI 3700 W JUNEAU, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Jagdish Krishnan officer: Chief Digital Officer 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Tori Termaat officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Gina M Goetter officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O HASBRO, INC., 1027 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861