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SCHW (Charles Schwab) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.05% (As of Oct. 29, 2024)


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What is Charles Schwab Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Charles Schwab's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Charles Schwab's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Capital Markets subindustry, Charles Schwab's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Charles Schwab's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Capital Markets Industry

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Charles Schwab's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Charles Schwab's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Charles Schwab Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.59

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.05%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Charles Schwab  (NYSE:SCHW) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Charles Schwab Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Charles Schwab Business Description

Industry
Address
3000 Schwab Way, Westlake, TX, USA, 76262
Charles Schwab operates in brokerage, wealth management, banking, and asset management. It runs a large network of brick-and-mortar brokerage branch offices and a well-established online investing website, and it has mobile trading capabilities. It also operates a bank and a proprietary asset-management business and offers services to independent investment advisors. Schwab is among the largest firms in the investment business, with over $8 trillion of client assets at the end of December 2023. Nearly all of its revenue is from the United States.
Executives
Carolyn Schwab-pomerantz director 3000 SCHWAB WAY, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Charles R. Schwab director, officer: Co-Chairman PO BOX 2226, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Richard A Wurster officer: President 3000 SCHWAB WAY, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Walter W Bettinger officer: EVP/COO - Individual Investor 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Bernard J. Clark officer: MD, Head of Adivsor Services C/O THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION, 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Peter B. Crawford officer: CFO 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Stephen A Ellis director C/O THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION, 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Morgan Peter J. Iii officer: General Counsel 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Nigel J Murtagh officer: MD, EVP - Corporate Risk C/O THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION, 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Arun Sarin director C/O SAFEWAY INC., 5918 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Joseph R Martinetto officer: MD and COO 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Mark A Goldfarb director C/O THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION, 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Adams John K Jr director 300 CONTINENTAL DRIVE, NEWARK DE 19713
Jonathan M. Craig officer: Please see remarks 3000 SCHWAB WAY, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Frank C Herringer director