Ares Commercial Real Estate (Ares Commercial Real Estate) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.13% (As of Jun. 08, 2024)

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What is Ares Commercial Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Ares Commercial Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.13%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Ares Commercial Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the REIT - Mortgage subindustry, Ares Commercial Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Ares Commercial Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Ares Commercial Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ares Commercial Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Ares Commercial Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-6.67

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.13%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments)

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Ares Commercial Real Estate (NYSE:ACRE) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Ares Commercial Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Ares Commercial Real Estate (Ares Commercial Real Estate) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (NYSE:ACRE) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

TRTX DX ORC ARR IVR NYMT REFI NREF KREF GPMT NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR

Traded in Other Exchanges

41I:Germany 41I:Germany

Address

245 Park Avenue, 42nd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10167

Website

https://www.arescre.com

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp is a specialty finance company and a Real Estate Investment Trust providing commercial real estate loans and related investments. The company operates in one segment namely originating and managing a diversified portfolio of CRE debt-related investments. The group recognizes its revenues through the interest income it receives from loans.

Executives

Bryan Patrick Donohoe	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Anton Feingold	officer: General Counsel VP & Secretary	C/O CION ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
William Stephen Benjamin	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Rebecca Jaisali Parekh	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE, 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Michael J Arougheti	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
James Alan Henderson	officer: President and CIO	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
David A Roth	officer: President	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Rand Scott April	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MGMT, 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Moriarty Edmond N. Iii	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Kirk Sykes	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Robert L Rosen	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
James E Skinner	director	NEIMAN MARCUS GROUP, 1618 MAIN ST, DALLAS TX 75201
Caroline Blakely	director	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE 48TH FL, CHICAGO IL 60606
John Jardine	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, 48TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Todd Schuster	director	C/O TPG RE FINANCE TRUST, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106