Willamette Valley Vineyards (Willamette Valley Vineyards) Predictability Rank

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What is Willamette Valley Vineyards Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Willamette Valley Vineyards Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Willamette Valley Vineyards (Willamette Valley Vineyards) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc (NAS:WVVI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WVVIP.PFD:USA

Address

8800 Enchanted Way, South East, Turner, OR, USA, 97392

Website

https://www.wvv.com

Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc produces and sells premium, super-premium, and ultra-premium wines. The grapes are harvested, fermented, and made into wine at the company's Turner winery, and the wines are sold principally under its Willamette Valley Vineyards label and also under the Griffin Creek, Tualatin Estate, Pambrun, Maison Bleue, Natoma, Metis, and Elton labels. It operates under two operating segments, direct sales and distributor sales. Direct sales include retail sales in its tasting room and remote sites, wine club sales, online sales, on-site events, kitchen and catering sales, and other sales made directly to the consumer without the use of an intermediary. Distributor sales include all sales through a third party where prices are given at a wholesale rate.

Executives

James W Bernau	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2545 CLOVERDALE RD SE, TURNER OR 97392
Sarah Alice Rose	director	6821 50TH AVE NE, SEATTLE WA 98115
Day Cara Pepper	director	1088 SW PRESTWICK CT., WILSONVILLE OR 97070
Stanley G Turel	director	604 SE 121ST AVE, C/O ARBOR PARK OFFICE, VANCOUVER WA 98683
John Alphonsus Ferry	officer: CFO	15830 FOREST RIDGE LANE NE, SILVERTON OR 97381
Leslie J Copland	director	2350 NW SAVIER STREET, UNIT 406, PORTLAND OR 97210
Goward Richard F. Jr.	officer: CFO	2623 ABBEY LN. SE, SALEM OR 97317
Heather Westing	director	25030 SW PARKWAY AVE, SUITE 300, WILSONVILLE OR 97070
James L Ellis	director	7850 SE KING ROAD, MILWAUKIE OR 97222
Craig Alan Smith	director	367 SANRODEE DR. SE, SALEM OR 97317
Jonathan J Ricci	director	C/O JONES SODA CO., 234 9TH AVE. N., SEATTLE WA 98109
O Brien Betty M	director	22500 INGRAM LANE NW, SALEM OR 97304
Christopher L Sarles	director	2185 SW WINCHESTER, PORTLAND OR 97225-4457
Chris Riccardi	10 percent owner	15 STEDMAN WAY, LOUDONVILLE NY 12211
Delna L. Jones	director	39692 CAMINO TEMPLADO, INDIO CA 92203