Universal Health Services (Universal Health Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Universal Health Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Universal Health Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Universal Health Services (Universal Health Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Universal Health Services Inc (NYSE:UHS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UHS:Germany

Address

367 South Gulph Road, Universal Corporate Center, P.O. Box 61558, King Of Prussia, PA, USA, 19406-0958

Website

https://www.uhs.com

Universal Health Services Inc owns and operates acute care hospitals, behavior health centers, surgical hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, and radiation oncology centers. The firm operates in two key segments: Acute Care Hospital Services and Behavioral Health Services. The Acute Care Hospital Services segment includes the firm's acute care hospitals, surgical hospitals, and surgery and oncology centers.

Executives

Warren J. Nimetz	director	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019
Steve Filton	officer: Senior Vice President & CFO	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING PRUSSIA PA 19406
Marc D Miller	director, officer: President	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Eileen C. Mcdonnell	director	600 DRESHER ROAD, HORSHAM PA 19044
Lawrence S. Gibbs	director	599 LEXINGTON AVE # 20, NEW YORK NY 10022
Edward H Sim	officer: Executive Vice President	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Nina Chen-langenmayr	director	211 N. 13TH STREET, 4TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19107
Sussman Elliot J Md Mba	director
Matthew Jay Peterson	officer: Executive Vice President, UHS	2824 87TH TRAIL NORTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55443
Maria Ruderman Singer	director	245 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10167
Robert H Hotz	director	C/O MIKASA, 20633 S FORDYCE AVENUE, LONG BEACH CA 90810
Marvin G. Pember	officer: Senior Vice President	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Debra K Osteen	officer: Senior Vice President	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING PRUSSIA PA 19406
John H Herrell	director	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING PRUSSIA PA 19406
Anthony Pantaleoni	director	FULBRIGHT & JAWORSKI LLP, 666 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10103