Simon Property Group (Simon Property Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Simon Property Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Simon Property Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Simon Property Group (Simon Property Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Simon Property Group Inc (NYSE:SPG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SPGpJ.PFD:USA SPG:Mexico 1SPG:Italy SQI:Germany SQI:Germany SIMN34:Brazil SPGR:Austria

Address

225 West Washington Street, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46204

Website

https://www.simon.com

Simon Property Group is the second-largest real estate investment trust in the United States. Its portfolio includes an interest in 231 properties: 136 traditional malls, 70 premium outlets, 14 Mills centers (a combination of a traditional mall, outlet center, and big-box retailers), 6 lifestyle centers, and 5 other retail properties. Simon's portfolio averaged $693 in sales per square foot over the 12 months prior to the pandemic. The company also owns a 21% interest in Klepierre, a European retail company with investments in shopping centers in 16 countries, and joint venture interests in 33 premium outlets across 11 countries.

Executives

Larry C Glasscock	director	SYSCO CORPORATION, 1390 ENCLAVE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77077
Randall J Lewis	director	WELLPOINT, INC, 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Allan B Hubbard	director	ANTHEM INC., 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Glyn Aeppel	director	6 WHIPPOORWILL LANE, WESTPORT CT 06880
Gary M Rodkin	director	700 ANDERSON HILL RD, PURCHASE NJ 10577
Reuben S Leibowitz	director	466 LEXINGTON AVENUE 10TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017
Marta R Stewart	director	C/O NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP, THREE COMMERCIAL PL, NORFOLK VA 23510-9219
Daniel C. Smith	director	3000 GODFREY GRADUATE AND EXECUTIVE CTR., 1275 EAST TENTH STREET, BLOOMINGTON IN 47405-1703
Stefan M Selig	director	2 EAST 70TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Peggy Fang Roe	director	100 COMMERCE LANE, APT. 1401, BETHESDA MD 20814
Karen N Horn	director
Smith J Albert Jr	director	111 MONUMENT CIRCLE, IN1-0175, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Matthew A Jackson	officer: SVP, Assistant Treasurer	225 W. WASHINGTON ST., INDIANAPOLIS IN 46256
Kevin M Kelly	officer: Asst. General Counsel/Sec.	225 W. WASHINGTON ST., INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Donald G Frey	officer: EVP, Treasurer	225 W. WASHINGTON ST., INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204