Prudential Financial (Prudential Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Prudential Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Prudential Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Prudential Financial (Prudential Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE:PRU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PRU:Mexico PLL:Germany PLL:Germany P1DT34:Brazil PRU:Austria

Address

751 Broad Street, Newark, NJ, USA, 07102

Website

https://www.investor.prudential.com

Prudential Financial is a large, diversified insurance company offering annuities, life insurance, retirement plan services, and asset management products. While it operates in a number of countries, the vast majority of revenue is generated in the United States and Japan. The company's investment management business, PGIM, contributes approximately 15% of its earnings and has over $1.5 trillion in assets under management. The U.S. businesses are responsible for about 45% of earnings and can be classified into Institutional Retirement Strategies, Individual Retirement Strategies, Group Insurance, Individual Life Insurance, and Assurance IQ. Finally, the international business segment of the company contributes approximately 40% of earnings with a strong market position in Japan.

Executives

Kenneth Tanji	officer: EVP and CFO	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Timothy L Schmidt	officer: Senior Vice President	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Kathleen Murphy	director	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Caroline Feeney	officer: Executive Vice President	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Ann M Kappler	officer: EVP and General Counsel	PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL, INC., 751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEWARK NJ 07102
Robert Axel	officer: SVP and Controller	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN.: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Andrew F Sullivan	officer: Executive Vice President	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Nicholas C Silitch	officer: Senior Vice President	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLR, ATTN.: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Scott Sleyster	officer: Senior Vice President	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN.: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Robert Falzon	officer: EVP and CFO	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN.: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Charles F Lowrey	officer: Executive Vice President	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Michael Todman	director	C/O TMA LIMITED, LLC, 500 RENAISSANCE DRIVE, SUITE 103B, ST. JOSEPH MI 49085
Wendy Elizabeth Jones	director	2025 HAMILTON AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Stacey Goodman	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CIT GROUP INC., ATTN:GENERAL COUNSEL, 1 CIT DRIVE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Candace Woods	officer: Senior Vice President	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102