ONEOK (OKE) Predictability Rank

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What is ONEOK Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ONEOK Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ONEOK Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ONEOK (OKE) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » ONEOK Inc (NYSE:OKE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ONK:Germany ONK:Germany ONK:Germany O1KE34:Brazil OKE:Austria

Address

100 West Fifth Street, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74103

Website

https://www.oneok.com

Oneok provides natural gas gathering, processing, storage, and transportation as well as natural gas liquids transportation and fractionation. It owns extensive assets in the midcontinent, Permian, and Rocky Mountain regions.

Executives

Eduardo A Rodriguez	director	100 WEST FIFTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Lyndon C Taylor	officer: See Remarks	333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
James R Hoskin	officer: See Remarks	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800, TULSA OK 74172
Wayne Thomas Smith	director	1940 AIR PRODUCTS BLVD., ALLENTOWN PA 18106
Lori Gobillot	director	5103 CITY WEST BLVD., 4TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77042
Janet L. Hogan	officer: Senior Vice President HR	2307 OREGON STREET, OSHKOSH WI 54902
Pierce Norton	director, officer: President & CEO	100 W. 5TH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Brian L Derksen	director	100 W. 5TH ST., TULSA OK 74103
Scott D Schingen	officer: Senior VP Operations	100 WEST 5TH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Mark W Helderman	director	100 W. 5TH ST., TULSA OK 74102
Mary M Spears	officer: VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	100 W. 5TH ST., TULSA OK 74103
Gary David Parker	director	100 W. 5TH ST., TULSA OK 74103
Terry K Spencer	officer: OKS - COO	100 W. 5TH ST., TULSA OK 74103
John William Gibson	director, officer: CEO	100 WEST FIFTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Hulse Walter S Iii	officer: EVP STRATEGIC PLNG & CORP DEV	100 W. 5TH ST., TULSA OK 74103