MGIC Investment (MGIC Investment) Predictability Rank

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What is MGIC Investment Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MGIC Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MGIC Investment (MGIC Investment) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » MGIC Investment Corp (NYSE:MTG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MGC:Germany

Address

250 E. Kilbourn Avenue, MGIC Plaza, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202

Website

https://www.mgic.com

MGIC Investment Corp provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services. The insurance premiums that these customers pay for the protection accounts for close to majority of the company's total revenue. Investment income accounts for the remaining revenue. The company sells its insurance products in all 50 states of the United States and in Puerto Rico. Its greatest exposure is in California, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and New York.

Executives

Michael Leal Thompson	director	4 BRIDGET COURT, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Analisa M Allen	director	250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Teresita M. Lowman	director	2235 ENTERPRISE STREET #110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Jodee A Kozlak	director	1000 NICOLLET MALL, TPS-3255, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55403
Jay C. Hartzell	director	250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Sheryl L. Sculley	director	250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Gary A. Poliner	director	C/O MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Daniel A. Arrigoni	director	C/O MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 250 E KILBOURN AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
James J. Hughes	officer: SVP-Sales & Bus. Development	C/O MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Michael E Lehman	director
Julie K. Sperber	officer: VP-Controller & Chief Acct Off	MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Patrick Sinks	officer: Executive Vice President	250 E KILBOURN AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Steven M. Thompson	officer: EVP&CRO-Mort Gty Ins Corp	250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Nathaniel H Colson	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	C/O MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Robert J Candelmo	officer: SVP-Chief Information Officer	250 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202