Macerich Co (Macerich Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Macerich Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Macerich Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Macerich Co (Macerich Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Macerich Co (NYSE:MAC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

M6G:Germany

Address

401 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 700, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90401

Website

https://www.macerich.com

The Macerich Company is an S&P 500 company that invests in premium mall assets. The company owns 28 regional malls in its consolidated portfolio and 16 regional malls in its unconsolidated portfolio along with four power centers and seven other real estate assets. The company's total portfolio has 47.0 million square feet of gross leasable area and averaged $869 sales per square foot over the 12 months ending in December 2022.

Executives

Christopher J Zecchini	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	401 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Scott W Kingsmore	officer: Chief Financial Officer	401 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Kenneth Volk	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	401 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Edward C Coppola	director, officer: Executive Vice President	THE MACERICH COMPANY, 401 WILSHIRE BVLD., STE. 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
O Hern Thomas E	officer: EVP, Treasurer & CFO	THE MACERICH COMPANY, 401 WILSHIRE BVLD., STE. 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Ann C Menard	officer: EVP, CLO and Secretary	401 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Doug J Healey	officer: EVP, Leasing	401 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Marianne Lowenthal	director	401 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Enrique Jr Hernandez	director	INTER-CON SECURITY SYSTEMS, INC., 210 SOUTH DELACEY AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91105
Steven L Soboroff	director	THE MACERICH COMPANY, 401 WILSHIRE BVLD., STE. 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board	10 percent owner	5650 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M2M 4H5
Dana K Anderson	director, officer: Vice Chairman of the Board	THE MACERICH COMPANY, 401 WILSHIRE BVLD., STE. 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Andrea M Stephen	director	THE MACERICH COMPANY, 401 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Alschuler John H Jr	director	C/O SL GREEN REALTY CORP, 420 LEXINGTON SUITE 1900, NEW YORK NY 10170
Steve Hash	director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101