Discover Financial Services (Discover Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Discover Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Discover Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Discover Financial Services (Discover Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DC7:Germany DC7:Germany

Address

2500 Lake Cook Road, Riverwoods, IL, USA, 60015

Website

https://www.discover.com

Discover Financial Services is a bank operating in two distinct segments: direct banking and payment services. The company issues credit and debit cards and provides other consumer banking products including deposit accounts, students loans, and other personal loans. It also operates the Discover, Pulse, and Diners Club networks. The Discover network is the fourth-largest payment network in the United States as ranked by overall purchase volume, and Pulse is one of the largest ATM networks in the country.

Executives

Kathy Lonowski	director	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Michael Shepherd	director	567 HALE STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Jason Strle	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Jason P. Hanson	officer: EVP, Pres. - Payment Services	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Daniela O'leary-gill	director	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Beverley A Sibblies	director	2700 SANDERS ROAD, PROSPECT HEIGHTS IL 60070
Robert Andrew Eichfeld	officer: EVP - Chief HR & Admin Officer	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Carlos Minetti	officer: EVP, Pres. - Consumer Banking	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Hope Mehlman	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer & GC	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Michael H Moskow	director	444 WEST LAKE STREET, STE. 4700, CHICAGO IL 60606
John B Owen	director	REGIONS FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 1900 5TH AVENUE NORTH, 21ST FLOOR, BIRMINGHAM AL 35203
John Greene	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	51 LIME STREET, LONDON X0 EC3M 7DQ
Shifra Kolsky	officer: SVP, Controller and CAO	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Michael E Roemer	officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer	AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC., 70 PINE STREET, NEW YORK NY 10270
Daniel Peter Capozzi	officer: EVP, Pres - Cr Ops & Dec Mgmt	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015