City Holding Co (City Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is City Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

City Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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City Holding Co (City Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » City Holding Co (NAS:CHCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

25 Gatewater Road, P.O. Box 7520, Charleston, WV, USA, 25313

Website

https://www.bankatcity.com

City Holding Co is a financial holding company. It provides banking, trust and investment management and other financial solutions through its network of banking offices located in the states of West Virginia, Virginia, southeastern Ohio and Kentucky. It offers various products and services such as overdraft facilities, saving accounts, credit card and debit cards, loans for various purposes, investment advisory, securities brokerage, insurance, technology products, and others. These products and services are provided to commercial banking, consumer banking, mortgage banking, wealth management and trust services.

Executives

David L Bumgarner	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	214 BENT TREE ESTATES, SCOTT DEPOT WV 25560
J. Thomas Jones	director	ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63141
Hylton Tracy W Ii	director	PO BOX 1109, BECKLEY WV 25802-1109
Robert D Fisher	director
Sharon Horton Rowe	director	25 GATEWATER ROAD, CROSS LANES WV 25313
Quinlan Michael T Jr	officer: SVP, Branch Banking	209 PARKVIEW DRIVE, ST ALBANS WV 25177
Gregory A Burton	director	4504 WASHINGTON AVENUE SE, CHARLESTON WV 25304
Charles R Hageboeck	director, officer: President & CEO
John A Derito	officer: EVP, Commercial Banking	6 FOXCHASE ROAD, CHARLESTON WV 25304
Jeffrey Dale Legge	officer: SVP, CAO & CIO	634 RIDGEWOOD ROAD, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Javier A Reyes	director	65 FALLING WATER LANE, MORGANTOWN WV 26508
Craig G Stilwell	officer: EVP Retail Banking
Diane W Strong-treister	director	503 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, CHARLESTON WV 25302
James L Rossi	director
Charles W Fairchilds	director	C/O COMMUNITY FINANCIAL CORP, 38 NORTH CENTRAL AVENUE, STAUNTON VA 24401