CBL & Associates Properties (CBL & Associates Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is CBL & Associates Properties Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CBL & Associates Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CBL & Associates Properties (CBL & Associates Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » CBL & Associates Properties Inc (NYSE:CBL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CAZ0:Germany

Address

2030 Hamilton Place Boulevard, Suite 500, Chattanooga, TN, USA, 37421

Website

https://www.cblproperties.com

CBL & Associates Properties Inc is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust. The company engages in the ownership, development, acquisition, leasing, management and operation of regional shopping malls, outlet centers, lifestyle centers, open-air centers and other properties. . CBL's sales predominantly derive from leasing arrangements with retail tenants. The company also generates revenue from management and development fees, as well as sales of its real estate assets. CBL expands its portfolio of assets through activities such as redevelopment, renovation, and expansion.

Executives

Andrew Franklin Cobb	officer: Exec VP-Accounting	1563 QUIET POND DR, CHATTANOOGA TN 37415
Benjamin W Jaenicke	officer: Exec VP - Finance	2030 HAMILTON PLC BLVD, CBL CENTER, SUITE 500, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Michael A Torres	director	MANUFACTURED HOME COMMUNTIES INC, 2 N RIVERSIDE PLZ #8, CHICAGO IL 60606
Joseph Khalili	officer: EVP Financial Planning & Anlys	2030 HAMILTON PLC BLVD, CBL CENTER, SUITE 500, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Jennifer Cope	officer: EVP Ops Services & Risk Mgmt	2030 HAMILTON PLC BLVD, CBL CENTER, SUITE 500, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
David J Contis	director	2 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 600, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jeffery V. Curry	officer: Interim Chief Legal Officer	4019 BREAKWATER DR, HIXON TN 37343
Charles B Lebovitz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	CBL & ASSOCIATES PROPERTIES INC, ONE PARK PLACE 6148 LEE HWY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Strategic Value Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Strategic Value Special Situations Offshore Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jonathan M Heller	director, other: Member of 10% owner group	CANYON PARTNERS, LLC, 1370 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jeffrey Kivitz	director	39 BOLAND ROAD, SHARON CT 06069
Marjorie L. Bowen	director	225 6TH STREET, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Strategic Value Special Situations Master Fund Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Svp Special Situations Iv Llc	10 percent owner	C/O STRATEGIC VALUE PARTNERS, LLC, 100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830