What is Avon Products Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Avon Products Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Avon Products (Avon Products) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Nunn Mills Road, Lancaster House, Northampton, GBR, NN1 5PA
Avon Products Inc is a firm which manufactures and sells beauty and related products. Avon's product mix consists of beauty (cosmetics, fragrances, and skin care), fashion (accessories and apparel), and home (home products and gifts). Generating, a majority of its revenue from Beauty. The company's geographic operating segments includes Avon International and Avon Latin America.
Executives
| Gustavo Arnal |
officer: Executive Vice President, CFO |
C/O AVON PRODUCTS, INC., 1 AVON PLACE, SUFFERN NY 10901 |
| Fernandez Calero Miguel Angel |
officer: Global President |
800 W. OLYMPIC BLVD. SUITE 406, LOS ANGELES CA 90015 |
| James A Mitarotonda |
director |
888 SEVENTH AVENUE 17TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Chan Galbato |
director |
191 E NORTH AVENUE, CAROL STREAM IL 60188 |
| Nancy Killefer |
director |
3170 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042 |
| Helen Mccluskey |
director |
2211 REDDING ROAD, FAIRFIELD CT 06430 |
| Lenard Tessler |
director |
C/O ALBERTSONS COMPANIES, INC., 250 E. PARKCENTER BLVD., BOISE ID 83706 |
| W Don Cornwell |
director |
|
| Susan J Kropf |
director |
C/O AVON PRODUCTS INC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105-0196 |
| Cathy D Ross |
director |
901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508 |
| James E Thompson |
officer: Senior Vice President |
250 EAST FIFTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Charles H Noski |
director |
ONE PICKWICK PLAZA, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Steven F Mayer |
director |
11812 SAN VICENTE BLVD. # 300, LOS ANGELES CA 90049 |
| Sherilyn S Mccoy |
director, officer: CEO |
JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933 |
| James S Scully |
officer: EVP, COO |
C/O J. CREW GROUP, INC., 770 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
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