Acadia Realty Trust (Acadia Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Acadia Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Acadia Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Acadia Realty Trust (Acadia Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Acadia Realty Trust (NYSE:AKR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WX1:Germany

Address

411 Theodore Fremd Avenue, Suite 300, Rye, NY, USA, 10580

Website

https://www.acadiarealty.com

Acadia Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust which specializes in the operation, management, leasing, renovation, and acquisition of shopping centers and mixed-use properties with retail components. The company's portfolios are located primarily in metropolitan areas of the United States. The company operates through three segments: core portfolio, which consists primarily of high-quality retail properties located primarily in high-barrier-to-entry, densely-populated metropolitan areas with a long-term investment horizon and generates the majority of total revenue; funds, which comprises the funds launched by the trust; and structured financing, which consists of notes receivable and related interest income.

Executives

John J. Gottfried	officer: Senior Vice President/CFO	C/O ACADIA REALTY TRUST, 411 THEODORE FREMD AVE., SUITE 300, RYE NY 10580
Jason Blacksberg	officer: Sr. V.P. and General Counsel	C/O ACADIA REALTY TRUST, 1311 MAMARONECK AVE. STE. 260, WHITE PLAINS NY 10605
Lee S Wielansky	director	PAUL HASTINGS, 75 EAST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joseph Napolitano	officer: Sr. Vice President	PAUL HASTINGS, 75 EAST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Douglas Ii Crocker	director	C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 515 S. FLOWER ST., 44TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Kenneth F Bernstein	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ACADIA REALTY TRUST, 411 THEODORE FREMD AVENUE, SUITE 300, RYE NY 10580
C David Zoba	director	C/O GALYAN'S TRADING CO, 2437 EAST MAIN ST, PLAINFIELD IN 46168
Hope B Woodhouse	director	1601 UTICA AVENUE, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Wendy W Luscombe	director	480 TAGHKANIC CHURCH TOWN ROAD, CRARYVILLE NY 12521
Mark A Denien	director	600 E 96TH ST, #100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Christopher Conlon	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ACADIA REALTY TRUST, 1311 MAMARONECK AVE., SUITE 260, WHITE PLAINS NY 10605
Lorrence T Kellar	director	C/O LOEHMANNS INC, 2500 HALSEY STREET, BRONX NY 10461
Mcintyre Kenneth A Jr	director	C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Richard Hartmann	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O ACADIA REALTY TRUST, 1311 MAMARONECK AVE., SUITE 260, WHITE PLAINS NY 10605
Lynn C Thurber	director	JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORTED, 200 E RANDOLPH DR, CHICAGO IL 60601