22nd Century Group (22nd Century Group) Predictability Rank

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What is 22nd Century Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

22nd Century Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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22nd Century Group (22nd Century Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » 22nd Century Group Inc (NAS:XXII) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 Seneca Street, Suite 507, Buffalo, NY, USA, 14204

Website

https://www.xxiicentury.com

22nd Century Group Inc is a United States-based biotechnology company focused on utilizing alkaloid plant technologies to improve health and wellness with reduced nicotine tobacco, and hemp/cannabis. It has two operating segments; The tobacco segment is engaged in commercializing its proprietary VLNC tobacco plants and cigarette products, which contain 95% less nicotine than conventional tobacco and cigarettes, and research cigarettes sold under the brand name SPECTRUM, and The hemp/cannabis segment is engaged in providing hemp-derived cannabinoid ingredients and API, as well as a CDMO to the consumer goods industry. It derives a majority of its revenue from the tobacco segment.

Executives

Andrew Arno	director	C/O MERRIMAN CURHAN FORD GROUP, INC., 600 CALIFORNIA STREET, 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
James A Mish	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	8560 MAIN STREET, SUITE 4, WILLIAMSVILLE NY 14221
John Franzino	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	8560 MAIN STREET, SUITE 4, WILLIAMSVILLE NY 14221
Peter Ferola	officer: Chief Legal Officer	BIOTELEMETRY, INC., 1000 CEDAR HOLLOW ROAD, #102, MALVERN PA 19355
John J Miller	officer: President, Tobacco	500 SENECA STREET, SUITE 507, BUFFALO NY 14204
Lucille S Salhany	director	C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD CO, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Michael Zercher	officer: Chief Operating Officer	8560 MAIN STREET, SUITE 4, WILLIAMSVILLE NY 14221
Robert Hugh Kinsman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	500 SENECA STREET, SUITE 507, BUFFALO NY 14204
Clifford B Fleet	director	6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Richard F Fitzgerald	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TECHPRECISION CORPORATION, ONE BELLA DRIVE, WESTMINSTER MA 01473
Anthony L. Johnson	director	C/O 22ND CENTURY GROUP, INC., 500 SENECA STREET, SUITE 507, BUFFALO NY 14204
Richard M. Sanders	director	1119 PIEDRA RONDO, SANTA FE NM 87501
Roger D O'brien	director	C/O 22ND CENTURY GROUP, INC., 8560 MAIN STREET, SUITE 4, WILLIAMSVILLE NY 14221
Michael Koganov	director	8560 MAIN STREET, SUITE 4, WILLIAMSVILLE NY 14221
Nora B Sullivan	director	C/O RAND CAPITAL CORP, 2200 RAND BLDG, BUFFALO NY 14203