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NYSE Euronext, (XPAR:NYX) Predictability Rank


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What is NYSE Euronext, Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NYSE Euronext, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NYSE Euronext, Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NYSE Euronext, (XPAR:NYX) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » NYSE Euronext, Inc. (XPAR:NYX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSE:8697 FDS ASX:ASX SGX:S68 MORN XPAR:ENX TSX:X CBOE MIC:MOEX XMAD:BME SHSE:601519 MIL:CERV DFM:DFM LSE:ERM BOM:500092 BOLSAA XKLS:1818 NDAQ NSE:MCX JSE:JSE
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.nyse.com
NYSE Euronext, Inc., a Delaware corporation, was organized on May 22, 2006 in anticipation of the combination of the businesses of NYSE Group, Inc., a Delaware corporation, and Euronext N.V., a company organized under the laws of the Netherlands. The Company is a global operator of financial markets and provider of trading solutions. The Company offers an array of products and services in cash equities, futures, options, swaps, exchange-traded products, bonds, clearing operations, market data, commercial technology solutions and carbon trading, all designed to meet the evolving needs of investors, issuers, financial institutions and market participants. The Company consists of three business segments: Derivatives; Cash Trading and Listings; and Information Services and Technology Solutions. Derivatives segment is comprised of derivatives trading and clearing businesses and includes its subsidiaries NYSE Liffe, NYSE Liffe Clearing, NYSE Liffe US, NYSE Amex Options, NYSE Arca Options and joint venture NYPC as well as its related derivatives market data business. Cash Trading and Listings segment consists of cash trading and listings businesses and includes its subsidiaries the NYSE, Euronext, NYSE Amex, NYSE Arca, NYSE Alternext, NYSE Arca Europe and SmartPool, as well as NYSE Blue and Interbolsa, and its related cash trading market data business. Information Services and Technology Solutions segment refers to its commercial technology transactions, data and infrastructure businesses. The Company operates a commercial technology business, NYSE Technologies Inc., and also owns NYFIX, Inc., a provider of solutions that aims to optimize trading efficiency. NYSE Technologies provides comprehensive transaction, data and infrastructure services and managed solutions for buy-side, sell-side and exchange communities. NYSE Technologies' integrated solutions power the trading operations of global financial institutions and exchanges, including non-NYSE Euronext markets in addition to all the exchanges in the NYSE Euronext group. NYSE Technologies operates five businesses: Global Market Data, which offers an array of global market information products covering multiple asset classes; Trading Solutions, which creates and implements high performance, end-to-end messaging software and real-time market data distribution and integration products; Exchange Solutions, which provides multi-asset exchange platform services, managed services and expert consultancy; Global Connectivity, which offers a financial transaction network connecting firms and exchanges worldwide; and Transaction Services, which mainly comprises the former NYFIX FIX business, and which incorporates the NYFIX Marketplace and FIX Software businesses. NYSE Liffe US, NYSE Arca and NYSE Amex face considerable competition in derivatives trading. Their main U.S. competitors are the CME Group Inc., Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc., the International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc

NYSE Euronext, (XPAR:NYX) Headlines

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