Xilinx (Xilinx) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Xilinx Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xilinx Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Xilinx Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Xilinx's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Xilinx (Xilinx) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Xilinx Inc (NAS:XLNX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2100 Logic Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95124

Website

https://www.xilinx.com

Founded in 1984, Xilinx is the leader in FPGAs by market share. Its chips are critical in the performance of various devices in the communications, data processing, industrial, consumer, and automotive markets. Xilinx designs and sells FPGAs, but it outsources manufacturing to third-party chip foundries such as TSMC.

Executives

Mark Wadlington	officer: SVP, Global Sales	215 MOFFETT PARK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Vincent Tong	officer: Executive Vice President	2100 LOGIC DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95124
William Christopher Madden	officer: EVP, FPGA & Silicon Tech	2100 ALL PROGRAMMABLE DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95124
Catia Hagopian	officer: Sr. VP General Counsel	2100 LOGIC DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95124
Vamsi Boppana	officer: SVP, Central Engineering	2100 LOGIC DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95124
Salil Raje	officer: EVP, Software and IP Products	2100 ALL PROGRAMMABLE DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95124
Sumeet Gagneja	officer: CVP & Principal Acct Officer	160 RIO ROBLES SAN JOSE CA 95134
Thomas H Lee	director	2100 LOGIC DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95124
Marshall C Turner	director	220 MONTGOMERY ST, PENTHOUSE 10, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Raman Chitkara	director	2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124
Saar Gillai	director	200 FLYNN ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012
Mary L Krakauer	director	176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
John Michael Patterson	director	2100 LOGIC DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95124
Jon A Olson	director	2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124
Ronald Steven Jankov	director	3875 FREEDOM CIRCLE, SUITE 900, SANTA CLARA CA 95054