Exagen (Exagen) Predictability Rank

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What is Exagen Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Exagen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Exagen (Exagen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Exagen Inc (NAS:XGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

E08A:Germany

Address

1261 Liberty Way, Vista, CA, USA, 92081

Website

https://www.exagen.com

Exagen Inc is a commercial-stage diagnostics company committed to addressing the unmet need for the accurate diagnosis and monitoring of patients affected by autoimmune rheumatic diseases. It currently markets ten testing products under its Avise brand to provide an accurate, timely, and differential diagnosis and to optimize the treatment of ARDs. It markets and sells solutions to community rheumatologists.

Executives

John Aballi	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O DECIPHER BIOSCIENCES, INC., 6925 LUSK BLVD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Paul Kim	director	4399 SANTA ANITA AVE, EL MONTE CA 91731
Tullis Growth Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	11770 US HWY 1, STE 503, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33408
Kamal Adawi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EXAGEN INC., 1261 LIBERTY WAY, SUITE C, VISTA CA 92131
Mark Hazeltine	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O EXAGEN INC., 1261 LIBERTY WAY, SUITE C, VISTA CA 92081
Wendy S. Johnson	director	800 E. LEIGH STREET, SUITE 209, RICHMOND VA 21219
Tullis James L L	director, 10 percent owner	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06907
Ana Hooker	director	441 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Frank Stokes	director	C/O CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, 820 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 201, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Hunt Holdings Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	C/O EXAGEN INC., 1261 LIBERTY WAY, SUITE C, VISTA CA 92081
Nmsic Co-investment Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O EXAGEN INC., 1261 LIBERTY WAY, SUITE C, VISTA CA 92081
Debra Zack	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O EXAGEN, INC., 1261 LIBERTY WAY, SUITE C, VISTA CA 92081
H.i.g. Bio-exagen, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O EXAGEN INC., 1261 LIBERTY WAY, SUITE C, VISTA CA 92081
Thierry Dervieux	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O EXAGEN DIAGNOSTICS, INC., 1261 LIBERTY WAY, VISTA CA 92081
Nmsic Focused Llc	10 percent owner	C/O EXAGEN INC., 1261 LIBERTY WAY, SUITE C, VISTA CA 92081