What is Exicure Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Exicure Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Exicure (Exicure) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2430 N. Halsted Street, Suite 410, Chicago, IL, USA, 60614
Exicure Inc is a biotechnology company that develops nucleic acid therapies targeting ribonucleic acid against validated targets for neurological disorders and hair loss. It operates in a single segment, which is the discovery, research, and development of treatments based on its SNA (Spherical Nucleic Acid) technology.
Executives
| Minhee Eom |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Dongho Lee |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Hyuk Joon Ko |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Hojoon Lee |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Dgp Co., Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
23, GEURINTEKEU-RO, YEONGGWANG-EUP, YEONGGWANG-GUN, JEOLLANAM-DO M5 57024 |
| Jung Sang Kim |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer, CFO |
46-31 CHEONGRO 3 GIL, GEUMSUNG-MYEON, UEISUNG-GUN, GYEONGSANGBUK-DO M5 37357 |
| Josh Miller |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer, CFO |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Jiyoung Hwang |
director |
C/O EXICURE, INC., 2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Cheolho Jo |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Seung Soo Shin |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Hyukku Lee |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Sung Uh Kang Paul |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Changil Ahn |
director |
2430 N. HALSTED ST., CHICAGO IL 60614 |
| Cbi Usa, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
3000 WESTERN AVENUE, SUITE 400, SEATTLE WA 98121 |
| Bali Muralidhar |
director |
C/O EXICURE, INC., 8045 LAMON AVENUE, SUITE 410, SKOKIE IL 60077 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
XCUR has been successfully added to your