Xenetic Biosciences (Xenetic Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Xenetic Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xenetic Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Xenetic Biosciences (Xenetic Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Xenetic Biosciences Inc (NAS:XBIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

945 Concord Street, Framingham, MA, USA, 01701

Website

https://www.xeneticbio.com

Xenetic Biosciences Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on progressing XCART, a personalized CAR T platform technology engineered to target patient-specific tumor neoantigens. The Company is initially advancing cell-based therapeutics targeting the unique B-cell receptor on the surface of an individual patient’s malignant tumor cells for the treatment of B-cell lymphomas. XCART has the potential to fuel a robust pipeline of therapeutic assets targeting high-value oncology indications. Additionally, Xenetic is leveraging PolyXen™, its proprietary drug delivery platform, by partnering with biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies. PolyXen™ has demonstrated its ability to improve the half-life and other pharmacological properties of next-generation biologic drugs. The Company has an exclusive license agreement with Takeda Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd. in the field of coagulation disorders and expects to earn royalty payments under this agreement.

Executives

Grigory G. Borisenko	director	40 SPEEN STREET, SUITE 102, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701
Alexey Andreevich Vinogradov	director	C/O XENETIC BIOSCIENCES, INC., 40 SPEEN STREET, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701
Adam Logal	director	OPKO HEALTH, INC., 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD., MIAMI FL 33137
James Eric Callaway	director	99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 230, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Dmitry Genkin	director	99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 230, LEXINGTON MA 02421
James F Parslow	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O XENETIC BIOSCIENCES, INC., 99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 230, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Curtis Lockshin	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	4400 BISCAYNE BOULEVARD, SUITE 950, MIAMI FL 33137
Benz Edward J. Jr	director	C/O DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 200 SMITH STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Roger D. Kornberg	director	345 WALSH ROAD, ATHERTON CA 94027
Darlene M Deptula-hicks	director	C/O ICAD, INC., 98 SPIT BROOK ROAD, SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 03062
Jeffrey F Eisenberg	director	99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 230, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Firdaus J. Dastoor	director	99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 230, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Michael Scott Maguire	director	99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 230, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Roman Knyazev	director	99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 230, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Pharmsynthez Pjsc	10 percent owner	25 LITER KRASNOVO KURSANTA STREET, ST. PETERSBURG 1Z 197110