What is WPX Energy Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
WPX Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
WPX Energy (WPX Energy) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3500 One Williams Center, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74172-0172
WPX Energy, based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, is an unconventional oil and gas producer with acreage in the Williston Basin (Bakken), the Permian Basin, and the Rockies. At the end of 2019, the company reported net proven reserves of 528 million barrels of oil equivalent. Net production averaged 167 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2019, at a ratio of 79% liquids and 21% natural gas.
Executives
| Bryan K Guderian |
officer: EVP Business Development |
ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 3800, TULSA OK 74172 |
| J Kevin Vann |
officer: EVP CFO |
ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 3800, TULSA OK 74172 |
| Faulkner Stephen L Jr |
officer: VP Controller and CAO |
3500 ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74172 |
| Encap Energy Capital Fund X, L.p. |
director, 10 percent owner |
9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Encap Partners Gp, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Felix Energy Investments Ii, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
1530 16TH STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Felix Investments Holdings Ii, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
1530 16TH STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Karl F Kurz |
director |
DEVON ENERGY CORP., 333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102 |
| Swanson Douglas E Jr |
director |
1100 LOUISIANA, SUITE 4900, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| D Martin Phillips |
director |
1100 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4900, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Kimberly S Lubel |
director |
P.O. BOX 696000, SAN ANTONIO TX 78269-6000 |
| Kelt Kindick |
director |
DEVON ENERGY CORP, 333 W SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102 |
| Valerie Williams |
director |
C/O OMNICOM GROUP INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| John A Carrig |
director |
ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 3800, TULSA OK 74172 |
| Robert Herdman |
director |
ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 3800, TULSA OK 74172 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
WPX has been successfully added to your