What is Wright Medical Group NV Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Wright Medical Group NV Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Wright Medical Group NV (Wright Medical Group NV) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Prins Bernhardplein 200, Amsterdam, NLD, 1097 JB
Wright Medical Group develops medical devices and products in five categories: lower extremities, upper extremities, biologics, large joints, and sports medicine, and other. Products for lower extremities include joint implants and bone fixation devices for the foot and ankle, whereas products for upper extremities include implants and devices for the shoulder, elbow, wrist, and hand. The biologics business sells products used to treat damaged or diseased bone, tendons, and soft tissues or to stimulate bone growth. The large joints business sells hip and knee replacement implants. The firm's sports medicine products are used to mechanically repair tissue injuries. Wright Medical Group generates the majority of its revenue in the United States.
Executives
| Steven P. Wallace |
officer: President, International |
1023 CHERRY ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Barry J. Regan |
officer: SVP, Operations |
1023 CHERRY ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Kevin C. Smith |
officer: SVP, Quality and Regulatory |
1023 CHERRY ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Jason D. Asper |
officer: SVP, Chief Digital Officer |
1023 CHERRY ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Tim Lanier |
officer: President, Upper Extremities |
1023 CHERRY ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Patrick Fisher |
officer: President, Lower Extremities |
1023 CHERRY ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Jonathan Wesley Porter |
officer: SVP, Chief Compliance Officer |
1023 CHERRY ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Julie Andrews |
officer: SVP, Global Finance |
5677 AIRLINE ROAD, ARLINGTON TN 38002 |
| Jennifer S. Walker |
officer: SVP, Process Improvement |
5677 AIRLINE ROAD ARLINGTON TN 38002 |
| Andrew C. Morton |
officer: SVP, Chief Human Resources Ofr |
10910 DOMAIN DRIVE, SUITE 300, AUSTIN TX 78758 |
| Lance A Berry |
officer: EVP, Chief Finan./Op. Officer |
5677 AIRLINE ROAD, ARLINGTON TN 38002 |
| Julie D. Dewey |
officer: SVP, Chief Comm. Officer |
1023 CHERRY ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Kevin D Cordell |
officer: EVP, Chief Global Comm Officer |
C/O WRIGHT MEDICAL GROUP, INC. 1023 CHERRY ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| Robert J Palmisano |
director, officer: President and Chief Executive |
110 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02173 |
| Peter Cooke |
officer: Pres. Emerging Markets AUS/JAP |
5677 AIRLINE ROAD ARLINGTON TN 38002 |
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