Vectren (Vectren) Predictability Rank

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What is Vectren Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vectren Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vectren (Vectren) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Vectren Corp (NYSE:VVC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.vectren.com

Vectren Corp is an energy holding company whose principal business is the ownership of energy utility companies in the American state of Indiana. Vectren Corp has three wholly owned subsidiaries: Indiana Gas Company, Southern Indiana Gas and Electric Company (SIGECO), and Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio (VEDO). The company derives roughly half of its total revenue from both the natural gas and electricity distribution services provided by SIGECO and VEDO to primarily residential and commercial consumers in Indiana. Vectren Corp's Infrastructure Services business represents the other half of its total revenue generation. Within this unit, the company provides underground pipeline construction and repair services to utilities companies, such as its own subsidiaries.

Executives

Teresa J. Tanner	director	38 FOUNTAIN SQUARE PLAZA, MD 10AT76, CINCINNATI OH 45263
Michael L Smith	director	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
M Susan Hardwick	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC., 1 WATER STREET, CAMDEN NJ 08102-1658
Robert G Jones	director	OLD NATIONAL BANCORP, ONE MAIN STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Jean L Wojtowicz	director	C/O VECTREN CORP, 20 NW FOURTH STREET, EVANVILLE IN 47711
Anton H George	director	C/O VECTREN CORP, 20 NW FOURTH STREET, EVANVILLE IN 47711
Degraffenreidt James H Jr	director	1100 H ST NW, WASHINGTON DC 20080
Martin C Jischke	director	1031 HOVDE HALL, W LAFAYETTE IN 47907
Niel C Ellerbrook	director	C/O OLD NATIONAL BANCORP, ONE MAIN STREET, EVANVILLE IN 47708
William G Mays	director	WELLPOINT, INC, 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Koch Robert L Ii	director