Vanda Pharmaceuticals (Vanda Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vanda Pharmaceuticals (Vanda Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:VNDA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VM4:Germany VM4:Germany

Address

2200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 300 E, Washington, DC, USA, 20037

Website

https://www.vandapharma.com

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of therapies to address high unmet medical needs and improve the lives of patients. Its commercial portfolio comprises two products, HETLIOZ for the treatment of Non-24-Hour Sleep-Wake Disorder (Non-24) & nighttime sleep disturbances in Smith-Magenis Syndrome (SMS) and Fanapt for the treatment of schizophrenia. Its other products include VHX-896 and ASO Molecules. The majority of revenue is derived from HETLIOZ product sales.

Executives

Joakim Wijkstrom	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON, DC DC 20037
Stephen Ray Mitchell	director	C/O VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVE., SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Kevin Patrick Moran	officer: VP, Acting CFO & Treasurer	C/O VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Timothy Williams	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE NW, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Tage Honore	director	C/O VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Mihael Hristos Polymeropoulos	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	9605 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE SUITE 300, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Gunther Birznieks	officer: SVP, Business Development	2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Thomas Watkins	director	1221 GULF SHORE BLVD N #303, NAPLES FL 34102
Aranthan Ii Jones	officer: Chief Corp. Affairs Officer	2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC DC 20037
Phaedra Chrousos	director	2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Richard W Dugan	director	20425 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
James Patrick Kelly	officer: SVP, CFO, Treasurer & Secretar	C/O SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 9715 KEY WEST AVENUE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Gian Piero Reverberi	officer: SVP, General Manager Europe	2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Anne Sempowski Ward	director	C/O VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Vincent Milano	director	C/O VIROPHARMA INC, 405 EAGLEVIEW BLVD, EXTON PA 19341