Vincerx Pharma (Vincerx Pharma) Predictability Rank

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What is Vincerx Pharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vincerx Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vincerx Pharma (Vincerx Pharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vincerx Pharma Inc (NAS:VINC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

260 Sheridan Avenue, Suite 400, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94306

Website

https://www.vincerx.com

Vincerx Pharma Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on development and oncology expertise to advance new therapies intended to address unmet medical needs for the treatment of cancer. The company's activities are conducted in the United States. It focuses to develop, use, manufacture, commercialize, sublicense and distribute a clinical-stage and follow-on small molecule drug program and a preclinical stage bioconjugation/next-generation ADC platform.

Executives

Alexander A. Seelenberger	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4500 GREAT AMERICA PKWY, STE. 100 #29, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Raquel E. Izumi	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operations Officer	4500 GREAT AMERICA PKWY, STE. 100 #29, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Ahmed Md Hamdy	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	995 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Tom C Thomas	officer: See Remarks	180 LOMA ALTRO, C/O MOCON INC, LOS GATOS CA 95030
Christopher P. Lowe	director	2511 N LOOP 1604,, SUITE 204, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
Laura I. Bushnell	director	4500 GREAT AMERICA PKWY, STE. 100 #29, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Rubric Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	155 EAST 44TH ST, SUITE 1630, NEW YORK NY 10017
David Efraim Rosen	10 percent owner	155 EAST 44TH ST., SUITE 1630, NEW YORK NY 10017
Sooin Hwang	officer: Chief Business Officer	260 SHERIDAN AVENUE, SUITE 400, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Xiaoming Zhang	officer: Chief Technology Officer	260 SHERIDAN AVE, SUITE 400, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Ruth E. Stevens	director	260 SHERIDAN AVENUE, SUITE 400, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Garban Hermes De Jesus	officer: Chief Medical Officer	4500 GREAT AMERICA PKWY, STE. 100 #29, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
John C. Byrd	10 percent owner	4500 GREAT AMERICA PKWY, STE. 100 #29, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Brian Druker	director	ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
John H. Lee	director	4500 GREAT AMERICA PKWY, STE. 100 #29, SANTA CLARA CA 95054